Varga: Trump’s military strike in Venezuela has ushered the world into new rules of the game, the time has come for a new NATO

The US military strike in Venezuela, carried out in the first days of 2026, is a precedent that has shockingly ushered the world into new rules of the game. At the same time, the issue of Greenland currently represents the greatest challenge to the future of NATO, which will no longer enjoy the old level of trust among its members and is ripe for reform, political scientist and journalist Boris Varga said in an interview with Portal ETV.

He warns that Montenegro, due to former US President Donald Trump’s distrust toward it, could become a Russian target within NATO, while its current position as a leader in European integration represents an encouraging signal in an unstable and uncertain global environment.

For our portal, Varga analyzed the consequences of key global events from 2025 and security challenges in 2026, namely the US intervention in Venezuela, the crisis and possible transformation of NATO, the war in Ukraine, the global division of the world into spheres of influence of major powers, as well as security risks for the Western Balkans, Russia’s role, and the survival of the „Serbian World“ project in new geopolitical circumstances.

Greenland - the greatest challenge

Donald Trump’s second entry into the White House and the new US foreign policy are, according to Varga, among the main events of 2025.

- Events from 2025 cannot be viewed separately from what happened in Venezuela in the first days of 2026. While the world was still dozing after New Year celebrations, the US military strike in Venezuela created a precedent and shockingly introduced the world to new rules of the game. In that context, Trump also reiterated US claims over Greenland, which can now unequivocally be understood as a threat - Varga said.

In his view, the US intervention in Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro recontextualize the past year and point to global trends in 2026.

- This is an international policy of dividing the world into spheres of influence among strong states, primarily the US and China. It is a policy of force, a time of strong leaders and their stripped-down pragmatic interests - he stresses.

The US is withdrawing from dozens of international organizations and agreements, and, Varga says, last year’s 80th anniversary of the end of World War II symbolically marks the end of an era.

- With the new National Security Strategy, Trump announced a reorientation of US foreign policy toward a supplemented Monroe Doctrine, which he himself called the „Donroe Doctrine“, a wordplay combining his name and that of the fifth US president, James Monroe. Trump’s interpretation of that doctrine is control of the Western Hemisphere subordinated to US interests - from Greenland, across North and South America, to the Pacific. All eyes are now on the melting Arctic, which is attracting the appetites of major geopolitical players - he notes.

The Greenland issue, Varga says, is currently the greatest challenge to the future of the North Atlantic Alliance. Regardless of how the situation with Denmark ends, NATO will no longer enjoy its former level of trust among its members.

- The Cold War–era format of NATO was worn out long before the war in Ukraine began. The time has certainly come for reform and a new NATO. Whether that will be a purely „European NATO“ or separate European armed forces, as has been discussed in recent years, the defense of Ukraine will undoubtedly be their first challenge. Protecting Ukraine is also the defense of Western Europe. In the first days of 2026, Russia launched a new ballistic missile, the „Oreshnik“, near the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, and Europe must understand this as an urgent call to respond - Varga warns.

Only now, he adds, are the consequences being felt of the failure to earlier create a strong European wing of NATO or even separate EU armed forces capable of responding more decisively to the war in Ukraine.

- Strong-handed leaders in the US, China, and Russia, although from different sides, are simultaneously opposed to an economically, politically, and militarily strong EU. It is tragic that Trump and his administration are passionately opposed to the EU as a social-democratic project, while lecturing European leaders on democracy, human rights, and media freedom. Elon Musk and Trump openly interfere in the politics of European states, supporting right-wing populists and parties that threaten to return Europe to the tracks of some new form of fascism - Varga emphasized.

There is no alternative to the EU

Such circumstances, he notes, represent a major challenge for an inert, slow, and often sluggish EU, raising the question of whether Brussels has the strength to resist these pressures.

- Europe will always be a web of alliances based on economic interests, but in a changing global environment the EU could undergo transformations that would devalue the humanistic values in which it is still a leader among democratic states. Without idealizing the often controversial, sometimes dysfunctional and bulky bureaucratic apparatus in Brussels, there is currently no alternative to the EU in the democratic world - Varga claims.

NATO, whether old or new with European armed forces, will remain an arch-enemy for Belgrade, which, he says, is an almost permanent point of divergence between Serbia and the West, regardless of how the EU and the Alliance evolve.

Montenegro’s accession to NATO was, in his view, one of the most important steps of the past decades, and the Alliance additionally protects Podgorica from the „Serbian“ and „Russian world“.

- Montenegro is also better protected from Chinese economic influence. At the same time, Montenegro could become a Russian target within NATO, because Trump expressed sharp distrust toward Montenegro during his first term. Currently, Montenegro is a leader in European integration, which is a positive signal in an unstable and foggy global environment - Varga said.

Serbia does not abandon its expansionist policy

The weakening of transatlantic ties and NATO will inevitably, Varga believes, intensify Russian hybrid operations in Europe. The Balkans, he says, are a special case, as from the very beginning Moscow viewed the post-conflict space of the former Yugoslavia as fertile ground for a „second European front“.

The „Serbian World“, he says, will survive even if the US and the EU manage to expel Russia from the Western Balkans.

- Not necessarily through weapons, a hole on the EU map is already a success for Russia. The „Serbian World“ is also a major Russian success in the Western Balkans and represents a revanchist revival of the defeated idea of a „Greater Serbia“. Modeled after the “Russian World,” the „Serbian World“ could become a dangerous political agenda in the event of major global changes - Varga stresses.

He notes that Serbia has never abandoned its expansionist policy toward Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska, and Kosovo, adding that it is worrying that there is no alternative to nationalist ideology in that country.

- That is why Aleksandar Vučić has been able to rule the country in an absolutist manner for a decade and a half through fraud and stolen elections. The opposition, as well as current student and civic protests, are in essence a new patriotism but old nationalism. They share similar positions with Vučić regarding NATO, Kosovo, war crimes, and regional policy - Varga assesses.

Trump’s doctrine

In the broader context of weakening transatlantic ties, Varga says, one must also view the change in US foreign policy embodied in Trump’s doctrine, whose consequences extend beyond NATO and deeply affect the EU enlargement policy.

- Trump’s doctrine weakens not only transatlantic ties but also the EU’s enlargement program toward Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the EU offered candidate status and negotiation processes to Eastern Partnership countries - Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia - as a form of political and economic protection. This could also be seen as compensation for Brussels’ inability to directly protect them from Russian aggression - Varga noted.

The change in US policy, he adds, could undermine the entire Eastern Partnership program.

- Georgia is already in Russia’s orbit and is rapidly moving away from European integration. Moldova was under strong pressure from the Kremlin during the past two election years but managed to resist Russian political influence. President Maia Sandu has stated she would support Moldova’s unification with neighboring Romania. Chișinău’s security directly depends on the situation on the Ukrainian front, as the separatist region of Transnistria hosts a Russian base that could overnight become an active part of a new Eastern European front - Varga said.

A world in a phase of total militarization

Varga’s warnings about the endangered EU Eastern Partnership gain additional significance in light of the war in Ukraine, which is redefining international security and shifting focus toward defense.

He notes that the war in Ukraine has already lasted longer than World War II, with no clear indications of peace.

The world has entered a phase of total militarization. From the long-standing concept of „security“, Varga says, we have moved into the paradigm of „defense“.

- Putin’s war in Ukraine must be viewed through the lens of imperial Russia. By amending the Russian Constitution and annexing four Ukrainian regions and Crimea, the Russian president has revived Russian imperialism. In this context, Putin is currently a loser, because aside from Crimea he has failed to fully control any of the remaining four regions. That is where all peace negotiations collapse, no matter how convincing they may sound in the media - Varga assessed.

He notes that the war in Ukraine was never regional. China, and personally its leader Xi Jinping, has backed the conflict by providing political, economic, and indirect military support to Russia.

China, Varga says, benefits the most from everything caused by the war in Ukraine and is the only actor capable of restraining Putin, who is currently in a vassal-like subordinate position to Beijing.

On the other hand, Trump’s appeasement of Putin, according to Varga, aims not only to stop the war and sign a peace agreement but also to extract Russia from dependence on China through massive personal interests and quasi-imperial bargains.

- The US president has buried the old world order established after World War II. In this new situation, Ukrainian analysts fear that Ukraine could become part of a Trump-Putin deal, partially or entirely falling into Russia’s sphere of influence. This is already partly happening in practice, as the peace plan is most contentious regarding Donbas territories, which Russia wants at any cost. For some time now, it has been unofficially believed that the US is ready to concede Donetsk and Luhansk regions to Russia, and Kyiv has agreed to freeze the current line of conflict just to achieve peace, which is desperately needed by exhausted and literally frozen Ukrainians. They are paying for this war with their blood. Russians are also paying in blood, but they are the aggressor force, and Putin does not care how many die - Varga said.

However, he notes that peace talks do not mention the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Putin also incorporated into the Russian Constitution.

- There may be a pause, some ceasefire like in Minsk in 2015 after the annexation of Crimea and the hybrid war in Donbas. But the task has not been completed, and expansion will continue after some time. Following imperial logic, Putin has already left his people and future leaders a bloody covenant with the millions of Russian casualties on the Ukrainian front - that abandoning Ukraine is betrayal - Varga emphasized.

What can stop Putin

He believes that the presence of foreign troops, especially Western instructors or bases, is no guarantee of peace in Ukraine.

- Russia has already violated its obligations under the 1995 Budapest Memorandum, when Kyiv gave up its nuclear arsenal, and Putin simply discarded the 2015 Minsk peace agreement - Varga reminds.

Two things, in his view, could stop Putin from further conquest of Ukraine.

- First, a military defeat or internal crisis in Russia. Second, if Moscow accepts a new global doctrine and at least temporarily halts warfare, receiving Georgia and up to the Turkish zone of interest in the South Caucasus instead of Ukrainian territory. Russia may capture individual villages and towns along the Ukrainian front, but it is a global loser. Moscow has been expelled from Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. It has lost significant influence in Syria, the Middle East, and Venezuela. China is taking over influence in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. The paradox of this war is that a Russia bogged down in Ukraine suits both its greatest enemies and its closest allies - many would benefit greatly from Russia’s collapse - Varga assessed.

The war in Ukraine and the shift in the global paradigm of international relations cannot bypass the Western Balkans. It is, he notes, a security-fragile region that has for decades failed to stabilize and integrate into the EU.

In practice, it is a region between Belgrade and Tirana - centers that pull neighboring countries in two different directions. For years, the West has turned a blind eye to the fact that since Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party came to power, Serbia has been undermining the European integration of the Western Balkans, especially Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. Serbian nationalism does not see itself as part of a united Europe, and „all Serbs“ do not see themselves „in one state“ - the EU.

Tirana, he says, is the opposite story. Albania is among the countries with enormous pro-European enthusiasm.

- Kosovo is protected by Alliance forces, neighboring North Macedonia and Montenegro are NATO members, and the broader Albanian community sees the EU as a solution to its political unity. However, it remains unknown how the new global doctrine will affect Albanian nationalists advocating a „Greater Albania“ - Varga said.

The Middle East - a zone of intersecting interests

While warning of new global risks and the fragility of the Western Balkans, Varga also notes that similar geopolitical complexity and conflicting interests persist in the Middle East, where the war in Gaza and great-power rivalries further test the international order and the West’s ability to establish a unified policy.

- The war in Gaza was the first attempt to relativize Putin’s crimes and shift global focus away from Ukraine. A ceasefire in Gaza is not a permanent solution, it merely halts destruction, suffering, and civilian casualties. Israel is a key US ally in the Middle East, currently playing an important role in undermining the Iranian regime. However, after a series of recognitions of Palestine, especially among Western states, it is only a matter of time before this issue must be resolved - he stressed.

Western leaders are divided over recognizing Palestine. Trump’s and Biden’s support for Benjamin Netanyahu’s regime represents not only further degradation of the United States but also, Varga emphasizes, a complete collapse of the relatively new and very fragile international order of justice.

- There has never been an international policy of equal standards. The Middle East will remain a place where spheres of interest intersect, regardless of the coming order of divided influence - Varga concluded.

The coming world of strong leaders and unfree states

Speaking about security risks in 2026, Varga says research on the global state of democracy in recent years warns of the rise of authoritarian tendencies worldwide.

Democracy, he notes, is experiencing multiple crises - from dysfunction and populism to increasing restrictions on human rights and freedom of speech. Autocracies appear more efficient in the short term, which strong-handed leaders exploit.

- Theorists first warned of a clash of civilizations, then of a new conflict between democracies and rising neo-totalitarianism. Practice increasingly shows that great powers are becoming personal regimes, while democracy in the 21st century is left without its strong global player - the United States. This means a coming world of strong leaders and unfree states - he says.

Symbolic and alarming, he adds, is the philosophy of what the world received on the anniversary of victory over fascism and Nazism.

- Roles have been reversed: Russia has gone from liberator to aggressor, with all the elements of fascism. The Israeli government stands between ethnic cleansing and genocide and should be held accountable before an international court. The US is forging imperial plans, which China will surely follow - Varga assessed.

He notes that these iron-fisted leaders are constrained either by term limits in the US or by lifespan in China.

- Speaking in simple terms, these are not young politicians like Kaja Kallas, Gabriel Boric, or Volodymyr Zelensky, but a comeback of the 20th century with macho traditionalists - Donald Trump turns 80 this year, and Xi Jinping is over 70. If they want to make the epochal changes they announce, they must do so starting this year - Varga concluded in his interview with Portal ETV.