Inexcusable police error, Medenica most likely planned his escape

The behavioral history of Miloš Medenica, son of former Supreme Court President Vesna Medenica, given that he had already once been unavailable to Montenegrin authorities - when he was in Serbia for medical treatment - strongly supports the hypothesis of a planned escape Professor Dr. Darko Marinković, a criminologist from the University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies in Belgrade, assessed for ETV Portal.

He recalled that Medenica was released from detention in October 2025 because a first-instance verdict had not been delivered within three years, and in his opinion, the biggest problem in this case is the poor assessment of the risk of escape. Miloš Medenica was sentenced on January 28 to ten years and two months in prison and has since been unavailable to Montenegrin authorities. National and international arrest warrants have been issued for him.

- A professional mistake - the police found him at his address on the night before the verdict, but as soon as the 10-year sentence was pronounced, he disappeared. In criminalistics, it is known that the moment a severe prison sentence is pronounced is a „critical point“ when suspects most often decide to flee. Surveillance should have been intensified in real time before the very pronouncement of the verdict - Professor Marinković was categorical.

He recalled a statement by Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić, who said that Medenica’s escape was „unacceptable“. From a security perspective, Marinković warns that this is a huge minus for the police – „allowing the main convicted person in the 'case of the decade' to disappear at the moment when he was under a measure prohibiting him from leaving his residence, i.e. under house arrest“.

- We have a verdict that has legally „won“ because a severe sentence was imposed, but operationally „lost“ because the convict is on the run - Marinković said.

He explains that from a criminalistics perspective, there can be two hypotheses - either Medenica planned the escape and secured logistics, or the escape was ad hoc, making it harder for him to hide.

These two hypotheses, as Marinković emphasizes, dictate different directions of police action. Considering the personality profile of the convicted individual and the severity of the crime, he believes the hypothesis of a planned escape is more likely, which implies that logistics were prepared in advance.

- In this case, the escape occurred at an „ideal“ moment - immediately after the verdict, but before the police managed to carry out the detention order. This suggests that there was a plan for an „escape strategy“, which includes pre-arranged forged documents, „safe houses“ for hiding, a pre-planned escape route, probably via illegal border crossings, and significant financial resources - Marinković emphasizes.

If the escape was planned, the convicted person, as he says, is most likely already outside the borders of Montenegro. The search must focus on international cooperation - Interpol - and analysis of communications of his accomplices prior to the verdict.

The second hypothesis of an ad hoc - spontaneous - escape implies, according to our interlocutor, that the convicted person believed until the very last moment in an acquittal or a lesser sentence, and reacted in panic upon hearing the sentence of ten years and two months in prison.

- If it turns out that the escape was unprepared, he will make mistakes. He will use familiar contacts, leave digital traces, or hide with close relatives. In that case, he is probably still on the territory of Montenegro or in the immediate border area. The police should then conduct intensive raids, road blockades, and surveillance of his closest circle of friends - Marinković said.

Nevertheless, Professor Marinković believes that this is a „hybrid model“ and that Medenica likely had a „Plan B“ ready for months, which included finances and contacts, and that he activated it once he realized the verdict would not be favorable for him.